Real Sociedad vs Levante — La Liga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Real Sociedad
59%
Draw
22%
Levante
20%
Expected goals
2.00–1.06
Real Sociedad · Levante
Real Sociedad win 59% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.2%), 2–1 (10.0%), 2–0 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Real Sociedad win is 2–1 (10.0%).
Real Sociedad score at least twice in 59%; Levante in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Levante goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Real Sociedad goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| Market reference | 59% | 22% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 59% | 22% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.66 |
| Draw | 4.40 |
| Levante | 4.84 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Real Sociedad
| 21 Aug | A | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 26 Aug | A | vs Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Elche | 3–2 | W |
Levante
| 16 Aug | A | vs Espanyol | 0–3 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Osasuna | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Real Betis | 5–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Malaga | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Barcelona | 2–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Real Sociedad (Home · 4 matches) | Levante (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 1.80 |
Home stats use Real Sociedad's home record; away stats use Levante's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.