Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Real Madrid
87%
pick · result
Draw
9%
Rayo Vallecano
4%
Final score
4–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Real Madrid win 86.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Real Madrid win. Expected goals 3.47–0.66 against 4–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 3–0 (11.2%), 4–0 (9.9%), 2–0 (9.5%). It finished 4–1.
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Recent form
Real Madrid
| 22 Aug | A | vs Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Aug | H | vs Real Sociedad | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Malaga | 4–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Rayo Vallecano | 4–1 | W |
Rayo Vallecano
| 15 Aug | A | vs Sevilla | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Aug | H | vs Alaves | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Barcelona | 2–5 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Santander | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Real Madrid (Home · 5 matches) | Rayo Vallecano (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Real Madrid's home record; away stats use Rayo Vallecano's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.