🇪🇸 La Liga·Sunday, 30 August 2026·15:00

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15:00

2nd vs —

Malaga

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Real Madrid	1.13	1.13
Draw	10.49	10.49
Malaga	17.12	17.12

Metis Forecast

model + market

Real Madrid

87%

Draw

Malaga

Real Madrid 2.58 xGexpected goals0.68 xG Malaga

Real Madrid win 87% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 48% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (14.6%).

Real Madrid score at least twice in 77%; Malaga in 14%.

2–0 14.6%2–1 12.4%1–0 12.3%3–0 10.8%3–1 9.2%4–0 6.0%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4
0	2.3	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.0
1	12.3	4.0	1.5	0.4	0.1
2	14.6	12.4	1.7	0.5	0.1
3	10.9	9.2	3.9	0.4	0.1
4	6.0	5.1	2.2	0.6	0.0
5+	4.1	3.5	1.5	0.4	0.1

rows = Real Madrid goals · columns = Malaga goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score48%

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Over 4.5 goals23%

Real Madrid clean sheet50%

Malaga clean sheet4%

Real Madrid score 2+77%

Malaga score 2+14%

Real Madrid score 3+48%

Model vs market

Source	Real Madrid	Draw	Malaga
Raw Metis model	72%	20%	8%
Market (de-vigged)	87%	8%	5%
Metis Forecast	87%	8%	5%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

Real Madrid

19 Aug	H	vs Osasuna	1–0	W
24 Aug	A	vs Oviedo	3–0	W
30 Aug	H	vs Mallorca	2–1	W
13 Sept	A	vs Real Sociedad	2–1	W
20 Sept	H	vs Espanyol	2–0	W

No recent results.

Head to head

No previous meetings found.

Model context

Stat	Real Madrid (Home)	Malaga (Away)
BTTS rate	57.9%	—
Over 2.5 rate	57.9%	—
Clean sheet	31.6%	—
Avg goals	3.21	—

Home stats use Real Madrid's home record; away stats use Malaga's away record this season.

Real Madrid →🇪🇸 La Liga standings & fixtures