Rayo Vallecano head into this one in inconsistent form but carry a solid defensive record at home, conceding under a goal per game on average and keeping clean sheets in over four in ten home fixtures. That frugal backline has kept their BTTS rate well below the La Liga average, and with Girona struggling on the road this season, the conditions for a low-scoring affair are present.

Girona away, however, tell a different story defensively. They have kept just one clean sheet on the road all season, and opponents have found ways through consistently, pushing their away BTTS figure noticeably above the league norm. Their attacking output remains decent but their inability to shut up shop is a real vulnerability.

The H2H sample is thin, but Rayo won the only previous meeting. Given Girona's poor away defensive record against a home side that knows how to grind, this looks tighter than a mid-table clash might suggest, with Rayo the value side.