Rayo Vallecano vs Elche — La Liga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Rayo Vallecano
54%
Draw
25%
Elche
21%
Expected goals
1.68–0.99
Rayo Vallecano · Elche
Rayo Vallecano win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.9%), 1–0 (11.4%), 2–1 (10.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Rayo Vallecano win is 1–0 (11.4%).
Rayo Vallecano score at least twice in 50%; Elche in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Elche goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Rayo Vallecano goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Market reference | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Metis Forecast | 54% | 25% | 21% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.81 |
| Draw | 3.83 |
| Elche | 4.50 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Rayo Vallecano
| 15 Aug | A | vs Sevilla | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Aug | H | vs Alaves | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Barcelona | 2–5 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Santander | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
Elche
| 17 Aug | A | vs La Coruna | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Barcelona | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Santander | 2–3 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Real Sociedad | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Athletic Club | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Rayo Vallecano (Home · 3 matches) | Elche (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Rayo Vallecano's home record; away stats use Elche's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.