Oviedo head into this relegation battle in desperate form, winless in three and sitting bottom of the table. Their home record tells a cautious story — a BTTS rate of just 29% and an average of 0.5 goals scored per home game are both well below the league average, pointing to a side that is defensively minded but chronically short of attacking threat. A clean sheet in nearly half their home games shows structure, but it is rarely enough to earn points.

Alaves arrive in slightly better shape positionally but have been leaking goals on the road all season, keeping just one clean sheet away from home with an average of 1.8 conceded per game. Their away BTTS rate of 53% sits close to the league norm, suggesting they tend to contribute to open games when travelling.

The lone H2H meeting ended level, and both sides have plenty to lose here. This looks tighter than it might appear on paper, with goals at a premium given Oviedo's low-scoring home environment.