Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Osasuna
38%
top pick
Draw
29%
result
Rayo Vallecano
33%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 29.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Osasuna win. Expected goals 1.37–1.19 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.0%), 0–1 (9.0%), 0–0 (9.0%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Osasuna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Alaves | 2–5 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Espanyol | 0–2 | L |
Rayo Vallecano
| 15 Aug | A | vs Sevilla | 1–2 | L |
| 20 Aug | H | vs Alaves | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Barcelona | 2–5 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Santander | 3–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Real Madrid | 1–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Osasuna (Home · 5 matches) | Rayo Vallecano (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.40 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Osasuna's home record; away stats use Rayo Vallecano's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.