Osasuna vs Espanyol — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Osasuna
42%
top pick
Draw
31%
Espanyol
28%
result
Final score
0–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Espanyol win 27.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Osasuna win. Expected goals 1.46–1.09 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.6%), 0–0 (9.6%), 1–0 (9.0%). It finished 0–2.
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Osasuna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Alaves | 2–5 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Espanyol | 0–2 | L |
Espanyol
| 16 Aug | H | vs Levante | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Real Sociedad | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Sevilla | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Osasuna | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Osasuna (Home · 5 matches) | Espanyol (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 1.40 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Osasuna's home record; away stats use Espanyol's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.