La Coruna vs Valencia — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Deportivo La Coruna
37%
pick · result
Draw
32%
Valencia
31%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Deportivo La Coruna win 36.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Deportivo La Coruna win. Expected goals 1.31–1.17 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (15.3%), 0–0 (10.2%), 1–0 (9.0%). It finished 3–1.
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La Coruna
| 17 Aug | H | vs Elche | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Malaga | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Valencia | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Villarreal | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Getafe | 1–1 | D |
Valencia
| 22 Aug | H | vs Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Aug | H | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs La Coruna | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Barcelona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Sevilla | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | La Coruna (Home · 6 matches) | Valencia (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 2.20 |
Home stats use La Coruna's home record; away stats use Valencia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.