La Coruna vs Sevilla — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Deportivo La Coruna
37%
top pick
Draw
32%
Sevilla
31%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Sevilla win 31.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Deportivo La Coruna win. Expected goals 1.41–1.26 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (15.3%), 0–0 (8.8%), 2–1 (7.9%). It finished 0–1.
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La Coruna
| 17 Aug | H | vs Elche | 1–1 | D |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Malaga | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Valencia | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Villarreal | 3–2 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Getafe | 1–1 | D |
Sevilla
| 15 Aug | H | vs Rayo Vallecano | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Athletic Club | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Atletico Madrid | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Valencia | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | La Coruna (Home · 6 matches) | Sevilla (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.33 | 3.67 |
Home stats use La Coruna's home record; away stats use Sevilla's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.