Getafe head into this Madrid derby in decent shape, sitting seventh and having won three of their last five at home. They are an exceptionally hard side to score against on their own patch, keeping clean sheets in a third of home games while conceding under a goal per game on average. Rayo arrive in inconsistent form, winning just once in their last four, and their away record offers little encouragement defensively, conceding 1.7 goals per game on the road.

The numbers point firmly toward a low-scoring, tight affair. Getafe's home BTTS rate of 33% and O2.5 rate of just 20% are both well below the league average, and Rayo's away BTTS figure of 31% reinforces that picture. The one previous meeting ended level, and this looks like another cagey encounter between two sides who know each other well. The data suggests the goals market will be quiet, and Getafe's defensive solidity at home makes them the side to side with here.