Getafe head into this end-of-season fixture in decent enough shape, sitting seventh and posting a W-L-L-D-W run that shows resilience despite some inconsistency. Osasuna arrive in far worse nick, having won just once in their last five away from home, and their travel record this season tells a difficult story — conceding an average of 1.4 goals per away game with a clean sheet rate of just 11%.

The goal data here is hard to ignore. Getafe's home matches have produced BTTS in only 33% of games and gone over 2.5 goals just 22% of the time, both dramatically below the league average of 57% and 50% respectively. Osasuna away games are marginally more open but still below the league norm. This fixture has the hallmarks of a low-scoring, hard-fought affair.

Form and context point toward Getafe as the stronger side on the day, and this looks like a match where they shade it narrowly. The visitors are there to be picked off, but don't expect fireworks.