Getafe vs Malaga — La Liga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Getafe
47%
Draw
32%
Malaga
22%
Expected goals
1.33–0.83
Getafe · Malaga
Getafe win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.4%), 1–0 (13.9%), 0–0 (13.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 43% of simulations.
Those three cover 41% of outcomes; the other 59% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Getafe win is 1–0 (13.9%).
Getafe score at least twice in 38%; Malaga in 20%.
Scoreline distribution
Malaga goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 14.4 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Getafe goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 30% | 22% |
| Market reference | 47% | 32% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 32% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 2.06 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.11 | 2.00 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 2.05 | 2.02 | 2.11 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.08 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 3.21 | 3.05 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.12 | 2.78 | 3.21 1xBet |
| Malaga | 4.48 | 4.33 | 4.00 | 4.36 | 4.45 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.25 | 3.63 | 4.48 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Getafe
| 15 Aug | A | vs Alaves | 0–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Santander | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Osasuna | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Celta Vigo | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs La Coruna | 1–1 | D |
Malaga
| 19 Aug | A | vs Atletico Madrid | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | vs La Coruna | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Real Madrid | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Celta Vigo | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Getafe (Home · 4 matches) | Malaga (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.50 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Getafe's home record; away stats use Malaga's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.