Getafe vs Malaga — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Getafe
48%
pick · result
Draw
31%
Malaga
21%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Getafe win 47.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Getafe win. Expected goals 1.36–0.83 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.1%), 1–0 (14.0%), 0–0 (12.5%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Getafe
| 15 Aug | A | vs Alaves | 0–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Santander | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Osasuna | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Celta Vigo | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs La Coruna | 1–1 | D |
Malaga
| 19 Aug | A | vs Atletico Madrid | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | vs La Coruna | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Real Madrid | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Celta Vigo | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Getafe (Home · 6 matches) | Malaga (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Getafe's home record; away stats use Malaga's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.