Espanyol vs Sevilla — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 3.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Espanyol
43%
top pick
Draw
29%
result
Sevilla
28%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 29.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Espanyol win. Expected goals 1.46–1.20 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.0%), 1–0 (9.7%), 2–1 (9.6%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Espanyol
| 16 Aug | H | vs Levante | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Real Sociedad | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Sevilla | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Osasuna | 2–0 | W |
Sevilla
| 15 Aug | H | vs Rayo Vallecano | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Athletic Club | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Atletico Madrid | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Valencia | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Espanyol (Home · 4 matches) | Sevilla (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.33 |
Home stats use Espanyol's home record; away stats use Sevilla's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.