Espanyol vs Elche — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 18 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 15.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Espanyol
50%
top pick
Draw
26%
Elche
24%
result
Final score
1–3
Top pick missed
Metis gave an Elche win 23.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Espanyol win. Expected goals 1.64–1.06 against 1–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.6%), 1–0 (10.1%), 2–1 (9.6%). It finished 1–3.
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Espanyol
| 16 Aug | H | vs Levante | 3–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Real Madrid | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Real Sociedad | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Sevilla | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Osasuna | 2–0 | W |
Elche
| 17 Aug | A | vs La Coruna | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Barcelona | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Santander | 2–3 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Real Sociedad | 2–3 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Athletic Club | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Espanyol (Home · 5 matches) | Elche (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.67 |
Home stats use Espanyol's home record; away stats use Elche's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.