Espanyol head into this with just one win in their last five, a run that has seen them slip to 13th and looking over their shoulder at the wrong end of the table. Their home record offers little comfort — averaging just 1.1 goals scored per game while conceding 1.4, and keeping a clean sheet only once in roughly every four home outings. Athletic Club are not travelling in great shape either, winning just two of their last five away from home and conceding 1.8 per game on the road, with a clean sheet rate of just 12%.

Both sides sit below the league average for BTTS and goals, though Athletic's away fixtures have produced over 2.5 goals at a rate slightly above the league norm. The H2H sample is too thin to lean on heavily. With two teams low on confidence and neither defence particularly convincing, this looks like a contest where goals are more likely than the cautious home stats imply. The visitors are arguably undervalued given Espanyol's poor recent form.