Elche come into this in decent nick, winning three of their last five at home, and their home record tells an interesting story — a clean sheet rate of 41% alongside 1.6 goals scored per game suggests they are capable of controlling matches while still finding the net. Alaves arrive in the relegation zone and have been porous on the road all season, keeping just one clean sheet away from home while conceding 1.8 per game. That defensive vulnerability is hard to ignore.

The goal data leans toward an open game. Both sides sit above the league average for BTTS, and Alaves have struggled badly to shut teams out away from home, which plays into Elche's hands. With Elche needing points to pull clear of trouble and Alaves desperate for a result, there is genuine jeopardy here.

Form points to Elche as the stronger side right now, and the visitors look overmatched in this one. This could be tighter in the stands than the table suggests, but the underlying numbers favor the hosts.