Celta Vigo head into this one in inconsistent form, winning two then losing, while Sevilla arrive having strung together three straight away wins to arrest their own poor run. The visitors sit five places below Celta but that away form deserves respect, and this fixture has the feel of a team punching above their weight on the road against a side that has been leaky at home all season, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game.

The goals data is compelling. Celta's home BTTS rate of 67% sits well above the La Liga average of 57%, and Sevilla's away record mirrors that pattern. Both sides have struggled to keep clean sheets, with each recording a shutout in just 17% of relevant matches. Sevilla's away O2.5 rate of 61% also stands out against a league average of 50%.

This looks looser and more open than a mid-table clash might suggest, and the visiting side are perhaps undervalued given their recent road form.