Celta Vigo arrive at this fixture in worrying shape, taking just one win from their last five and leaking goals regularly at home this season, conceding an average of 1.5 per game with a clean sheet rate of just 19%. Sitting sixth, they still have something to play for, but the performances have been unconvincing. Elche, despite their mid-table struggles, have quietly put together a decent run on the road, winning three of their last five away from home.

The goalscoring data here is striking. Elche have seen BTTS land in 80% of their away games this season, well above the league average of 56%, and they have not kept a single clean sheet on the road all campaign. Combined with Celta's own leaky home defence, the conditions for an open game look firmly in place, with both sides trending well above the 50% league average for over 2.5 goals.

This looks tighter than a home sixth versus away fifteenth matchup might suggest. Elche's away form and the limited H2H sample, where they claimed the only previous meeting, means the visitors are arguably undervalued heading into Sunday.