Barcelona arrive at this fixture in imperious form, having won all five of their last league outings, and their home record this season reads like a statement of intent. Averaging 3.1 goals scored per home game while conceding just 0.5, they have kept a clean sheet in over half their home matches — well below the league average for BTTS at 47% compared to the league norm of 56%. Real Betis have shown resilience on the road with two wins and three draws in their last five away trips, but they have conceded in 82% of away games this season, which makes shutting Barcelona out a tall order.

The goals angle is the most compelling thread here. Barcelona's home Over 2.5 rate of 82% dwarfs the league average of 51%, and even if Betis keep it tight for periods, the hosts' attacking output makes a high-scoring affair the path of least resistance. This one looks like Barcelona's game to lose.