🇪🇸 La Liga·Monday, 31 August 2026·19:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Barcelona | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| Draw | 8.11 | 8.11 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 15.00 | 15.00 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketBarcelona
83%
Draw
11%
Rayo Vallecano
6%
Barcelona 2.63 xGexpected goals0.63 xG Rayo Vallecano
Barcelona win 83% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 44% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 2–0 (14.1%).
Barcelona score at least twice in 76%; Rayo Vallecano in 13%.
2–0 14.1%3–0 11.7%1–0 10.8%2–1 9.8%3–1 8.1%4–0 7.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 5.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
rows = Barcelona goals · columns = Rayo Vallecano goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score44%
Over 1.5 goals84%
Over 2.5 goals64%
Over 3.5 goals41%
Over 4.5 goals23%
Barcelona clean sheet53%
Rayo Vallecano clean sheet6%
Barcelona score 2+76%
Rayo Vallecano score 2+13%
Barcelona score 3+49%
Model vs market
| Source | Barcelona | Draw | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 80% | 16% | 3% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 83% | 11% | 6% |
| Metis Forecast | 83% | 11% | 6% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Barcelona
| 16 Aug | A | vs Mallorca | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Levante | 3–2 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Valencia | 6–0 | W |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Getafe | 3–0 | W |
Rayo Vallecano
| 15 Aug | A | vs Girona | 3–1 | W |
| 25 Aug | A | vs Athletic Club | 0–1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Barcelona | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Osasuna | 0–2 | L |
| 21 Sept | H | vs Celta Vigo | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 22 Mar 26 | BarcelonavsVallecano | 1 – 0 |
| 31 Aug 25 | VallecanovsBarcelona | 1 – 1 |
Barcelona: 1W 1D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Barcelona (Home) | Rayo Vallecano (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 47.4% | 36.8% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 78.9% | 47.4% |
| Clean sheet | 52.6% | 21.1% |
| Avg goals | 3.53 | 2.42 |
Home stats use Barcelona's home record; away stats use Rayo Vallecano's away record this season.