Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid — La Liga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Atletico Madrid
27%
Draw
25%
Real Madrid
48%
Expected goals
1.34–1.83
Atletico Madrid · Real Madrid
Real Madrid win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.2%), 1–2 (9.5%), 0–2 (7.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Real Madrid win is 1–2 (9.5%).
Atletico Madrid score at least twice in 39%; Real Madrid in 55%.
Scoreline distribution
Real Madrid goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 28% | 25% | 48% |
| Market reference | 27% | 25% | 48% |
| Metis Forecast | 27% | 25% | 48% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 3.54 | 3.60 | 3.20 | 3.70 | 3.65 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 3.65 | 2.99 | 3.70 1xBet |
| Draw | 3.90 | 3.80 | 3.90 | 3.94 | 3.90 | 3.80 | 4.00 | 3.88 | 3.39 | 4.00 BetVictor |
| Real Madrid | 2.02 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.03 | 2.02 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.03 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Atletico Madrid
| 19 Aug | H | vs Malaga | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sevilla | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Athletic Club | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Real Sociedad | 3–0 | W |
Real Madrid
| 22 Aug | A | vs Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Aug | H | vs Real Sociedad | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Malaga | 4–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Rayo Vallecano | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Atletico Madrid (Home · 4 matches) | Real Madrid (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Atletico Madrid's home record; away stats use Real Madrid's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.