Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Atletico Madrid
70%
pick · result
Draw
20%
Osasuna
11%
Final score
4–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Atletico Madrid win 69.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Atletico Madrid win. Expected goals 2.11–0.78 against 4–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (12.7%), 1–0 (11.9%), 2–1 (10.8%). It finished 4–0.
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Atletico Madrid
| 19 Aug | H | vs Malaga | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sevilla | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Athletic Club | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Real Sociedad | 3–0 | W |
Osasuna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Alaves | 2–5 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Espanyol | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Atletico Madrid (Home · 5 matches) | Osasuna (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 4.33 |
Home stats use Atletico Madrid's home record; away stats use Osasuna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.