Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna — La Liga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Atletico Madrid
76%
Draw
16%
Deportivo La Coruna
9%
Expected goals
2.42–0.71
Atletico Madrid · Deportivo La Coruna
Atletico Madrid win 76% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13.1%), 1–0 (10.4%), 3–0 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Atletico Madrid score at least twice in 70%; Deportivo La Coruna in 16%.
Scoreline distribution
Deportivo La Coruna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Atletico Madrid goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| Market reference | 76% | 16% | 9% |
| Metis Forecast | 76% | 16% | 9% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.28 |
| Draw | 5.94 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 10.26 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Atletico Madrid
| 19 Aug | H | vs Malaga | 2–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Sevilla | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Athletic Club | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Real Sociedad | 3–0 | W |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Atletico Madrid (Home · 4 matches) | Deportivo La Coruna (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | — |
Home stats use Atletico Madrid's home record; away stats use Deportivo La Coruna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.