Atletico Madrid arrive at this fixture in alarming domestic form, having won just one of their last five league outings. For a side sitting fourth, that run raises real questions about their end-of-season momentum. Celta Vigo are not in significantly better shape on the road, but their away BTTS rate of 62% — above the league average of 56% — suggests they tend to stay involved in games even when struggling.

The home side's numbers tell an interesting story. Atletico have kept clean sheets in 44% of home games and concede under a goal per match on average, yet they have also managed over 2.5 goals in 56% of home fixtures, above the league average of 50%. The sole H2H meeting ended in a draw, hinting at competitive balance between these two.

Given Atletico's poor recent run and Celta's ability to contribute to open games, this looks tighter than casual observers might expect, with goals a genuine possibility from both ends.