Both sides arrive at San Mamés in inconsistent form, each winning just twice in their last five outings. Athletic Club have been solid at home defensively but lack a cutting edge, averaging 1.2 goals scored per home game against a league average of 2.68 per match. Valencia have struggled on their travels, conceding 1.7 per away game while managing under a goal per fixture themselves.

The numbers paint a picture of a low-scoring, tight affair. Athletic Club's home BTTS rate of 53% and Valencia's away figure of 47% both sit below the league average of 56%, and neither side is clearing 50% on Over 2.5 goals in their respective venues. The limited H2H data offers little comfort for either camp, with Valencia edging the only recent meeting.

This looks tighter and lower-scoring than a mid-table clash might suggest, and the visitors are more capable of nicking something than their league position implies.