Athletic Club vs Getafe — La Liga forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Athletic Club
62%
Draw
23%
Getafe
16%
Expected goals
1.74–0.77
Athletic Club · Getafe
Athletic Club win 62% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14.3%), 2–0 (12.7%), 1–1 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 44% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Athletic Club score at least twice in 52%; Getafe in 18%.
Scoreline distribution
Getafe goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 10.6 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.7 | 10.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Athletic Club goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Market reference | 62% | 23% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 62% | 23% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 1.58 |
| Draw | 4.21 |
| Getafe | 5.90 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Athletic Club
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sevilla | 1–3 | L |
| 27 Aug | A | vs Barcelona | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atletico Madrid | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Elche | 1–1 | D |
Getafe
| 15 Aug | A | vs Alaves | 0–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Santander | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Osasuna | 0–1 | L |
| 7 Sept | H | vs Celta Vigo | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs La Coruna | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Athletic Club (Home · 4 matches) | Getafe (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.25 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Athletic Club's home record; away stats use Getafe's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.