Athletic Club head into this late-season clash in inconsistent form, winning just two of their last five and sitting eighth — a position that flatters neither ambition nor recent output. Celta Vigo arrive in slightly better shape overall, occupying sixth, though their away record of two wins from five suggests they are far from reliable on the road. The one previous meeting this season ended in a Celta victory, giving them a psychological edge heading to San Mamés.

The scoring data paints a picture of two teams that grind rather than entertain. Athletic's home BTTS rate of 53% and Celta's away BTTS of 65% sit either side of the league average, while both sides show an Over 2.5 rate of 47%, notably below the Spanish top-flight norm. Goals may not flow freely here.

With both sides fading in form and the table stakes still meaningful, this looks tighter than a straightforward home win narrative would suggest, and the visitors are arguably undervalued given their superior league standing and head-to-head record.