Athletic Club vs Alaves — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Athletic Club
59%
top pick
Draw
24%
result
Alaves
17%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 23.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Athletic Club win. Expected goals 1.76–0.86 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.7%), 2–0 (11.6%), 1–1 (11.2%). It finished 0–0.
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Athletic Club
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sevilla | 1–3 | L |
| 27 Aug | A | vs Barcelona | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Atletico Madrid | 3–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Elche | 1–1 | D |
Alaves
| 15 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | A | vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Osasuna | 5–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Santander | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Athletic Club (Home · 6 matches) | Alaves (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Athletic Club's home record; away stats use Alaves's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.