Alaves head into this end-of-season clash sitting just three points above the relegation zone, and their recent form — three wins from five but with a loss sandwiched in — reflects the inconsistency that has defined their campaign. At home they have been surprisingly open, with BTTS landing in 72% of their home fixtures, well above the La Liga average of 57%, and an average of 1.3 goals scored and conceded per game suggesting neither side of the ball is particularly reliable.

Rayo Vallecano arrive in genuinely good shape, unbeaten in four of their last five away days, and their defensive solidity on the road stands out — clean sheets in 22% of away matches with BTTS at just 33%, significantly below the league norm. They travel as the more structured side.

The limited head-to-head history favours Rayo, and form points to the visitors being undervalued here. This looks tighter and lower-scoring than many might expect.