Alaves vs Malaga — La Liga forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Alaves
58%
Draw
25%
Malaga
17%
Expected goals
1.73–0.86
Alaves · Malaga
Alaves win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12.5%), 1–1 (11.9%), 2–0 (11.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Alaves score at least twice in 52%; Malaga in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Malaga goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 10.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Alaves goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 26% | 19% |
| Market reference | 58% | 25% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 58% | 25% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.69 |
| Draw | 3.81 |
| Malaga | 5.47 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Alaves
| 15 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | A | vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Osasuna | 5–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Santander | 1–2 | L |
Malaga
| 19 Aug | A | vs Atletico Madrid | 0–2 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | vs La Coruna | 1–1 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Real Madrid | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Celta Vigo | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Alaves (Home · 5 matches) | Malaga (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 25.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Alaves's home record; away stats use Malaga's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.