Barcelona arrive at Mendizorroza in imperious form, having won each of their last five matches, and sitting top of La Liga. Against a side struggling in 17th, the gap in quality is stark. Alaves have been leaky at home all season, keeping clean sheets in just 12% of home games, well below the league norm, while conceding an average of 1.4 per game on their own patch.

Goals look highly likely here. Both sides have BTTS figures well above the league average of 56%, with Alaves at 76% and Barcelona at 71% in away fixtures. Barcelona's away record also shows over 2.5 goals landing in 71% of their road trips, compared to a league average of 51%, with the visitors averaging 2.2 goals scored per away game.

The visitors look like clear value here. Alaves's patchy home form, defensive vulnerability, and Barcelona's relentless away performances all point toward a comfortable win for the league leaders.