Alaves sit in the relegation zone and will be desperate for points, but their recent form is unconvincing — just one win in their last five. Athletic Club arrive in similarly patchy away form, losing three of their last five on the road and averaging under a goal per away game this season. With the hosts leaking at the back and only one H2H meeting to draw on, this fixture carries genuine uncertainty.

The goals data here is worth noting. Alaves are involved in BTTS outcomes at a rate well above the league average in home games, while Athletic Club tend to suppress scoring on their travels, sitting notably below the league average for BTTS away. Those trends pull in opposite directions, making the attacking picture harder to read.

With a relegation-threatened side needing results and a mid-table visitor low on away momentum, this looks tighter and more competitive than the standings gap might suggest. Alaves are not without threat at home.