Kalamata vs Iraklis 1908 FC — Super League Greece forecast, Monday, 2 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kalamata
43%
Draw
30%
Iraklis 1908 FC
27%
Expected goals
1.49–1.15
Kalamata · Iraklis 1908 FC
Kalamata win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.3%), 1–0 (9.2%), 0–0 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Kalamata win is 1–0 (9.2%).
Kalamata score at least twice in 44%; Iraklis 1908 FC in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Iraklis 1908 FC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 14.3 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kalamata goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 27% | 27% |
| Market reference | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 30% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Kalamata | 2.24 |
| Draw | 3.15 |
| Iraklis 1908 FC | 3.43 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Kalamata
| 22 Aug | H | vs Aris | 2–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Panetolikos | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Atromitos | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Volos NFC | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Panathinaikos | 0–1 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Kalamata (Home · 4 matches) | Iraklis 1908 FC (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 4.25 | — |
Home stats use Kalamata's home record; away stats use Iraklis 1908 FC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.