Willem II vs PEC Zwolle — Eredivisie forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Willem II
35%
Draw
25%
PEC Zwolle
40%
Expected goals
1.56–1.71
Willem II · PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 2–1 (8.3%), 1–2 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 65% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Willem II score at least twice in 46%; PEC Zwolle in 51%.
Scoreline distribution
PEC Zwolle goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.9 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Willem II goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 32% | 25% | 43% |
| Market reference | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Metis Forecast | 35% | 25% | 40% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Willem II | 2.72 |
| Draw | 3.82 |
| PEC Zwolle | 2.39 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Willem II
| 8 Aug | A | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs NEC | 1–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Heerenveen | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Excelsior | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs AZ | 1–1 | D |
PEC Zwolle
| 9 Aug | H | vs Ajax | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Twente | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Heerenveen | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs NEC | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Willem II (Home · 5 matches) | PEC Zwolle (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Willem II's home record; away stats use PEC Zwolle's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.