Willem II vs Fortuna Sittard — Eredivisie result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Willem II
36%
Draw
25%
Fortuna Sittard
39%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Fortuna Sittard win 38.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Fortuna Sittard win. Expected goals 1.58–1.63 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.2%), 1–2 (8.7%), 2–1 (8.0%). It finished 0–1.
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Willem II
| 8 Aug | A | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs NEC | 1–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Heerenveen | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Excelsior | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs AZ | 1–1 | D |
Fortuna Sittard
| 8 Aug | A | vs PSV | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Cambuur | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs AZ | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Groningen | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Den Haag | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Willem II (Home · 5 matches) | Fortuna Sittard (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Willem II's home record; away stats use Fortuna Sittard's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.