Willem II vs Cambuur Leeuwaarden — Eredivisie forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Willem II
38%
Draw
25%
Cambuur Leeuwaarden
37%
Expected goals
1.58–1.66
Willem II · Cambuur Leeuwaarden
Willem II win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.1%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–2 (7.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 65% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Willem II score at least twice in 48%; Cambuur Leeuwaarden in 49%.
Scoreline distribution
Cambuur Leeuwaarden goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Willem II goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 25% | 45% |
| Market reference | 38% | 25% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 25% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Willem II | 2.54 |
| Draw | 3.77 |
| Cambuur Leeuwaarden | 2.56 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Willem II
| 8 Aug | A | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs NEC | 1–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Heerenveen | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Excelsior | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs AZ | 1–1 | D |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Willem II (Home · 4 matches) | Cambuur Leeuwaarden (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | — |
Home stats use Willem II's home record; away stats use Cambuur Leeuwaarden's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.