PSV vs Willem II — Eredivisie forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
PSV
91%
Draw
5%
Willem II
3%
Expected goals
3.44–0.89
PSV · Willem II
PSV win 91% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 3–1 (9.6%), 3–0 (9.3%), 2–1 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
PSV score at least twice in 89%; Willem II in 22%.
Scoreline distribution
Willem II goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Rows: PSV goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 79% | 13% | 7% |
| Market reference | 91% | 5% | 3% |
| Metis Forecast | 91% | 5% | 3% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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PSV
| 8 Aug | H | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Excelsior | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Groningen | 5–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Utrecht | 6–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ajax | 3–1 | W |
Willem II
| 8 Aug | A | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 1–4 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs NEC | 1–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Heerenveen | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Excelsior | 0–3 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs AZ | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | PSV (Home · 4 matches) | Willem II (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.25 | 4.40 |
Home stats use PSV's home record; away stats use Willem II's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.