Cambuur Leeuwaarden vs PSV — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cambuur Leeuwaarden
14%
Draw
15%
PSV
71%
Expected goals
1.27–2.43
Cambuur Leeuwaarden · PSV
PSV win 71% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (13.4%), 1–3 (8.8%), 0–2 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 68% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Cambuur Leeuwaarden score at least twice in 35%; PSV in 73%.
Scoreline distribution
PSV goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 1.7 | 6.3 | 13.4 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Cambuur Leeuwaarden goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 23% | 46% |
| Market reference | 14% | 15% | 71% |
| Metis Forecast | 14% | 15% | 71% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Cambuur Leeuwaarden | 6.36 |
| Draw | 5.96 |
| PSV | 1.37 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
PSV
| 8 Aug | H | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Excelsior | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Groningen | 5–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Utrecht | 6–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ajax | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Cambuur Leeuwaarden (Home · no matches) | PSV (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 4.40 |
Home stats use Cambuur Leeuwaarden's home record; away stats use PSV's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.