Zaglebie sit second in the Ekstraklasa and will be eager to apply title pressure, but their recent home form is a concern — three defeats in their last five at home undermines any assumption this is a straightforward night. Termalica arrive rooted to the foot of the table and have won just once in their last five away from home, so the quality gap is real, but the lone H2H meeting ended in a draw, worth noting.

The scoring patterns make for an interesting angle. Zaglebie's home BTTS rate of 43% sits well below the league average of 58%, suggesting they tend to keep things tight on their own patch. Termalica, however, concede freely on the road with a 14% clean sheet rate away. The data suggests Zaglebie should find the net, but this looks tighter than the surface-level league position gap implies, with the visitors capable of nicking something.