Wisla vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 14.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Wisla
41%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Jagiellonia
34%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Wisla win 41.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Wisla win. Expected goals 1.44–1.34 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (9.6%), 1–0 (9.0%). It finished 2–0.
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Wisla
| 26 Jul | H | vs GKS Katowice | 2–1 | W |
| 1 Aug | A | vs Piast Gliwice | 3–4 | L |
| 7 Aug | H | vs Wisla Plock | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Gornik Zabrze | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Pogon Szczecin | 2–2 | D |
Jagiellonia
| 25 Jul | H | vs Korona Kielce | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | A | vs Motor Lublin | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Widzew Lodz | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rakow | 5–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Wisla (Home · 6 matches) | Jagiellonia (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.33 |
Home stats use Wisla's home record; away stats use Jagiellonia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.