Wisla Krakow vs Rakow — Ekstraklasa forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Wisla Krakow
53%
Draw
22%
Rakow
24%
Expected goals
1.72–1.17
Wisla Krakow · Rakow
Wisla Krakow win 53% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (11.6%), 1–1 (10.6%), 1–0 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Wisla Krakow score at least twice in 52%; Rakow in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Rakow goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wisla Krakow goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market reference | 53% | 22% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 53% | 22% | 24% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Wisla Krakow | 1.80 |
| Draw | 4.13 |
| Rakow | 3.81 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Rakow
| 26 Jul | H | vs Wisla Plock | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 1–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 1–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Jagiellonia | 2–5 | L |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Gornik Zabrze | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Wisla Krakow (Home · no matches) | Rakow (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 3.00 |
Home stats use Wisla Krakow's home record; away stats use Rakow's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.