Wisla Krakow vs Cracovia — Ekstraklasa forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Wisla Krakow
54%
Draw
23%
Cracovia
23%
Expected goals
1.71–1.08
Wisla Krakow · Cracovia
Wisla Krakow win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (11.2%), 1–0 (10.9%), 1–1 (10.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Wisla Krakow score at least twice in 52%; Cracovia in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Cracovia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wisla Krakow goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 27% | 28% |
| Market reference | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 54% | 23% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Wisla Krakow | 1.78 |
| Draw | 4.05 |
| Cracovia | 4.07 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 01 Nov · 04:37 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Cracovia
| 25 Jul | A | vs Lech Poznan | 0–0 | D |
| 3 Aug | H | vs Pogon Szczecin | 0–2 | L |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Slask Wroclaw | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
| 21 Aug | H | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Wisla Krakow (Home · no matches) | Cracovia (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | — | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.67 |
Home stats use Wisla Krakow's home record; away stats use Cracovia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.