Wieczysta Krakow vs Zaglebie — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 7 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Wieczysta Krakow
46%
top pick
Draw
26%
result
Zaglebie
28%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Wieczysta Krakow win. Expected goals 1.56–1.18 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–0 (9.4%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Wieczysta Krakow
| 24 Jul | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Piast Gliwice | 4–3 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 2–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Wisla | 0–2 | L |
Zaglebie
| 27 Jul | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Legia | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Pogon Szczecin | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Wieczysta Krakow (Home · 5 matches) | Zaglebie (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 83.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 66.7% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Wieczysta Krakow's home record; away stats use Zaglebie's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.