Wieczysta Krakow vs Motor Lublin — Ekstraklasa forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Wieczysta Krakow
36%
Draw
25%
Motor Lublin
38%
Expected goals
1.45–1.50
Wieczysta Krakow · Motor Lublin
Motor Lublin win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–2 (8.5%), 2–1 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Wieczysta Krakow score at least twice in 43%; Motor Lublin in 44%.
Scoreline distribution
Motor Lublin goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.8 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wieczysta Krakow goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 26% | 39% |
| Market reference | 36% | 25% | 38% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 25% | 38% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Wieczysta Krakow | 2.62 |
| Draw | 3.72 |
| Motor Lublin | 2.49 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 15 Nov · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Wieczysta Krakow
| 24 Jul | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Piast Gliwice | 4–3 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 2–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Wisla | 0–2 | L |
Motor Lublin
| 26 Jul | A | vs Widzew Lodz | 2–2 | D |
| 31 Jul | H | vs Jagiellonia | 1–2 | L |
| 8 Aug | A | vs Pogon Szczecin | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs GKS Katowice | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Korona Kielce | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Wieczysta Krakow (Home · 5 matches) | Motor Lublin (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Wieczysta Krakow's home record; away stats use Motor Lublin's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.