Wieczysta Krakow vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Wieczysta Krakow
44%
Draw
23%
Jagiellonia
33%
Expected goals
1.50–1.32
Wieczysta Krakow · Jagiellonia
Wieczysta Krakow win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.9%), 2–1 (10.4%), 1–0 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Wieczysta Krakow win is 2–1 (10.4%).
Wieczysta Krakow score at least twice in 45%; Jagiellonia in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Jagiellonia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wieczysta Krakow goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 27% | 39% |
| Market reference | 44% | 23% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 23% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Wieczysta Krakow | 2.16 |
| Draw | 4.05 |
| Jagiellonia | 2.90 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Wieczysta Krakow
| 24 Jul | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Piast Gliwice | 4–3 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 2–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Wisla | 0–2 | L |
Jagiellonia
| 25 Jul | H | vs Korona Kielce | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | A | vs Motor Lublin | 2–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Widzew Lodz | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Rakow | 5–2 | W |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Wieczysta Krakow (Home · 4 matches) | Jagiellonia (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 3.20 |
Home stats use Wieczysta Krakow's home record; away stats use Jagiellonia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.