Widzew Lodz sit 17th and are scrapping for survival, though their home form has steadied somewhat with two wins in their last five. They keep things tight at home, conceding an average of 1.0 per game and posting a clean sheet rate of 43%, well above the league average. The problem is their output at the other end, where 1.2 goals per game suggests they are not creating enough to dominate games.

Motor Lublin arrive in decent shape, unbeaten in four of their last five away trips. What stands out is how open their away games tend to be — BTTS lands in 69% of their away fixtures against a league average of 58%, and they have kept just one clean sheet on the road all season. That vulnerability defensively could be Widzew's best route back into this.

The limited head-to-head record favours Motor, and their current form and mid-table security give them a mental edge. This looks tighter than the standings might suggest, but the visitors appear undervalued here.