Termalica sit bottom of the Ekstraklasa and arrive into this fixture in poor form, winning just two of their last five at home while conceding at an alarming rate. Their home BTTS rate of 73% and average of 1.9 goals conceded per game at home stands well above the league average, signalling a side that is consistently porous defensively. Legia are not exactly convincing away from home either, but their form across the last five on the road shows more resilience, with three unbeaten results in that run.

The H2H sample is thin, but Termalica did take the only previous meeting. That said, their current position and defensive vulnerability make it difficult to lean on that result with any confidence. Legia's away clean sheet rate is modest, yet their defensive structure on the road is notably tighter than what Termalica have shown at home this season.

This looks like a game with goals in it, given both sides sit above the league BTTS average. The visitors appear undervalued given Termalica's fragility, though this feels tighter than a straightforward win might suggest.