Rakow head into this one in solid shape, with four wins from their last five at home and a defensive record that stands out — clean sheets in 38% of home games and conceding under a goal per game on average. They sit fourth in the Ekstraklasa and will be motivated to push for a European spot, while Arka Gdynia arrive rooted in 17th and without a win in their last five away from home.

The goals data is interesting here. Rakow's home matches have produced BTTS in just 44% of games and Over 2.5 in only 31% — both well below the league average of 57% and 51% respectively. Arka ship 2.3 goals per away game on average and have kept just one clean sheet on the road all season, but Rakow don't tend to run up big scores either.

This looks like a controlled home win rather than a high-scoring affair. Rakow are the clear favourites and the form differential supports that view — the visitors look short of the quality needed to trouble a well-organised home side in this moment.