Pogon Szczecin vs Wieczysta Krakow — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 28.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Pogon Szczecin
46%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Wieczysta Krakow
28%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Pogon Szczecin win 46.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Pogon Szczecin win. Expected goals 1.65–1.22 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.0%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–0 (8.2%). It finished 2–0.
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Pogon Szczecin
| 24 Jul | H | vs Legia | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Motor Lublin | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Zaglebie | 0–0 | D |
Wieczysta Krakow
| 24 Jul | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 1–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Lech Poznan | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Piast Gliwice | 4–3 | W |
| 21 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 2–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Wisla | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Pogon Szczecin (Home · 7 matches) | Wieczysta Krakow (Away · 8 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 57.1% | 62.5% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 42.9% | 62.5% |
| Clean sheet | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.14 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Pogon Szczecin's home record; away stats use Wieczysta Krakow's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.